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The overall steps required to develop COD-HP are the same as but the approach to developing the number of affected people may be different based on the context of the emergency and data availability. There are two approaches to consider: 1) top-down and 2) bottom-up. More information about these is identified below.
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Field Example: Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines in 2013
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In the aftermath of Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines in 2013, the Government compiled a baseline population matrix to be used by the stakeholders responding to the crisis. Providing age and sex-disaggregated data in different regions of the country for 2013. The data was then calculated as follows: The starting point was Baranguay level data from 2010. Then the projected 2013 population for each Baranguay by using the Provincial population growth rates available on the census website were calculated. With the 2013 estimated population projections, the age and sex breakdown based on the 2010 age and sex ratios from the 2010 census was calculated.
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The Four Dimensions of the COD-HP Process
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Geography and Location such as geographical proximity to frontlines, people in areas of high conflict intensity. Distance to the eye of the storm or the earthquake epicentre can be used as proxies to identify people affected and in need.
Pre-crisis vulnerability or people who were below the poverty line or already suffering the effects of a previous crisis or shock are considered more vulnerable to new crisis and can fall in the category People Affected or People in Need.
Crisis impact can be used to identify population sections in need, based on their status 9refugees, returnees, IDP, etc); demographics (age and sex cohorts); setting (population living in areas of low temperature or in hazard-prone areas, population in open spaces); or with specific needs (single-headed households or unaccompanied children).
The intensity of unmet needs or food insecurity, existing and confirmed gaps in access to or availability of basic services and goods, protection issues, morbidity and mortality, low enrollment rates, shelter damages, etc. can be measured or estimated and used to identify people in need.
Affected Population
How to establish the Affected Population
There are two general approaches to provide overall figures of people affected across all sectors: a) top-down approach and b) bottom-up approach.
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a) Top-Down Approach
In the immediate aftermath of a crisis or emergencies, sub-groups may not yet be determined and figures for population displaced and casualties may not be available. In these cases, the population affected is determined as a total, then disaggregated as data becomes available.
The top-down approach is recommended where little in-crisis information, time and resources are available and disaggregation per population group is not yet possible. Thus, this method is recommended for emergencies such as natural disasters.
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Field Example: Myanmar Flood 2015
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For the 2015 Myanmar Humanitarian Needs Overview (HNO), the affected population was calculated as the total population living within flood-affected areas, looking at areas of probable standing flood waters. Additionally calculated using spatial analysis (intersection) the number of flood-affected villages and roads could also be calculated.
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Field Example: Libya Humanitarian Crisis 2015
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In the 2015 Libya Humanitarian Needs Overview (HNO), the number of affected people was calculated by extracting the number of people living within 2 kilometers of a conflict incident between June 2014 and 2015, as recorded in a regional conflict incident database (ACLED). In addition, 80% of the population of specific provinces was added, where all medical facilities were reported to be non-functional and thus unavailable to attenuate conflict effects such as conflict-related injuries. The total affected population estimate further includes IDPs, refugees and asylum seekers and migrants impacted by the conflict.
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b) Bottom-up Approach
The number of affected people is defined as the sum of casualties, displaced, population and non-displaced affected population. The model is however flexible. The sub-groups of the population affected are not static but determined specifically in the crisis context and thus will vary. Once these mutually exclusive groups are identified and figures sourced for each group, their sum results in the overall number of People Affected. The non-affected population is derived by subtracting the number of people affected from the total population.
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Field Example: Nepal Humanitarian Crisis 2015
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Humanitarian Profile Support Guidance 2016
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Phillippines Typhoon Haiyan Strategic Response Plan 2013
Myanmar Humanitarian Needs Overview 2015
Libya Humanitarian Needs Overview 2015
Nepal Earthquake Situation Report 2015
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